Basketball is a solved sport

Basketball has evolved from a game of unpredictability into a game of calculated decision-making with the use of data and analytics. From a game of points, assists, and rebounds, it has progressed into using thousands of data points to optimize every element of the game.

All decisions are made based on numbers not intuition. Long-range shooting and layups are preferred over mid-range shooting. Players are no longer do-it-alls; they are now given specialized roles.

Three-point rain

In the last decade, long-range shooting has gone from a secondary option to a primary choice for building offense. Recently, teams have realized three-pointers have higher point value despite their lower scoring percentage. This has led to a revolution in structuring an offense around taking long-range shots. The Golden State Warriors, led by Stephen Curry, probably jump-started this trend with 34 three-pointer attempts per game in the 2018-19 season, twice as much from five years ago. Celtics, this season, have averaged almost 50 three-pointers attempt this season (2024-25 season).

NBA 3-pt average per game

In the past, the team built its roster around a big name like Shaq. Most of the offense were from the center. This has now changed, with the primary strategy being to stretch the opposition and take long-range shots.

Rise of 3-and-D model

The 3-and-D model refers to a player, usually a wing player, who is just above average at three-pointers and plays competent defense. Forget about positions; just get a guy who can do some 3s and Ds.

Danny Green is probably the father of this model, with his 40% career three-point field goal percentage and he also made into all-defensive team.

In recent years, every team has had at least one 3-and-D model player on the roster.

Specialization

Gone are the days of an all-around player. There is no longer a need for a player who does everything. Look at players like Kobe Bryant and Lebron James (early career); they not only scored but guarded defense, caught rebounds and played the role of playmakers.

Now, it’s all about creating lineups with specialized players. A team typically consists of a three-point shooter, a defensive specialist, a playmaker, and rebounders. They all have specific roles assigned to them.

Average distance for goal attempt

Technology

A catch-all word for statistics, technology has played a pivotal role in shaping this game.

In addition to data collection, biomechanics and motion cameras track every player’s movement. NBA even brought SportVU from football; it follows the ball and supposedly captures images 25 times per second. Coaches can now use this to analyze the speed, position, form, and motion of each player on the court.

In the end, it’s all about optimizing every ball possession.

What now?

Basketball might have lost its flair; every move is now predictable and measured. What is the future of basketball, is anyone’s guess? Maybe a rule change is around the corner?